Vote Splitting: Fact or Fiction

One week after the election, there have been a lot of opinions thrown around from experts & average Joes alike.  One of the most common ideas is that the Liberals & NDP split left-wing votes, opening the door for the Conservatives to sneak in, and practically steal a majority.

In this latest podcast, I investigate this issue, and take a hard look at the numbers.  Will vote splitting prove to be fact, or fiction?

 

Download Link:
Vote Splitting

All vote totals are courtesy of CBC.ca:
Canada Votes 2011 (Election Map)
Canada Votes 2008 (Election Map)

25 Seats that were Liberal in 2008, and Conservative in 2011
Included are vote changes, from 2008-2011

Yukon (Liberals -1300; Conservatives +700; NDP +1000)
Vancouver South (Liberals -600; Conservatives +3200; NDP +1100)
Labrador (Liberals -1400; Conservatives +3600; NDP +700)
Madawaska-Restigouche (Liberals -4000; Conservatives +2700; NDP +1200)
Nipissing-Timiskaming (Liberals -3000; Conservatives +2000; NDP +2200)
London North Centre (Liberals -3200; Conservatives +1800; NDP +3600)
          19 in Toronto
Ajax-Pickering (Liberals -50; Conservatives +6300; NDP +3800)
Pickering-Scarborough East (Liberals -4800; Conservatives +3700; NDP +4100)
Scarborough Centre (Liberals -5800; Conservatives +2300; NDP +5700)
Don Valley East (Liberals -4500; Conservatives +2100; NDP +4800)
Don Valley West (Liberals +250; Conservatives +3500; NDP +1200)
Willowdale (Liberals -2600; Conservatives +6300; NDP +4700)
Eglinton-Lawrence (Liberals -500; Conservatives +5800; NDP +1900)
York Centre (Liberals -2200; Conservatives +6200; NDP +2200)
Richmond Hill (Liberals -3700; Conservatives +5800; NDP +3900)
Vaughan (Liberals -7300; Conservatives +19,000; NDP +2500)
Bramalea-Gore-Malton (Liberals -5800; Conservatives +1600; NDP +13,400)
Brampton-Springdale (Liberals -4300; Conservatives +6800; NDP +4600)
Brampton West (Liberals +400; Conservatives +6900; NDP +3900)
Mississauga-Streetsville (Liberals -2900; Conservatives +5200; NDP +3100)
Mississauga-Brampton South (Liberals -2700; Conservatives +8800; NDP +4100)
Mississauga East-Cooksville (Liberals -2200; Conservatives +5600; NDP +4300)
Mississauga South (Liberals -2000; Conservatives +4500; NDP +2200)
Etobicoke-Lakeshore (Liberals -4200; Conservatives +4400; NDP +5100)
Etobicoke Centre (Liberals -2900; Conservatives +2800; NDP +3600)

9 Ridings where Liberal Losses were Greater than Conservative Gains

Yukon (Liberals -1300; Conservatives +700; NDP +1000)
Madawaska-Restigouche (Liberals -4000; Conservatives +2700; NDP +1200)
Nipissing-Timiskaming (Liberals -3000; Conservatives +2000; NDP +2200)
London North Centre (Liberals -3200; Conservatives +1800; NDP +3600)
Scarborough Centre (Liberals -5800; Conservatives +2300; NDP +5700)
Don Valley East (Liberals -4500; Conservatives +2100; NDP +4800)
Bramalea-Gore-Malton (Liberals -5800; Conservatives +1600; NDP +13,400)
Etobicoke Centre (Liberals -2900; Conservatives +2800; NDP +3600)

8 of those Where NDP Gains were Larger than Conservative Gains

Yukon (Liberals -1300; Conservatives +700; NDP +1000)
Nipissing-Timiskaming (Liberals -3000; Conservatives +2000; NDP +2200)
London North Centre (Liberals -3200; Conservatives +1800; NDP +3600)
Scarborough Centre (Liberals -5800; Conservatives +2300; NDP +5700)
Don Valley East (Liberals -4500; Conservatives +2100; NDP +4800)
Bramalea-Gore-Malton (Liberals -5800; Conservatives +1600; NDP +13,400)
Etobicoke Centre (Liberals -2900; Conservatives +2800; NDP +3600)

5 of those Where Green Party Votes are Significant

Yukon (Liberals -1300; Conservatives +700; NDP +1000; Greens +1100)
Nipissing-Timiskaming (Liberals -3000; Conservatives +2000; NDP +2200;              Greens -250)
London North Centre (Liberals -3200; Conservatives +1800; NDP +3600;              Greens -3400)
Etobicoke Centre (Liberals -2900; Conservatives +2800; NDP +3600; Greens -1200)

3 Ridings where Vote Splitting was a Factor in Conservative Victory

Scarborough Centre (Liberals -5800; Conservatives +2300; NDP +5700; Greens -1000)
Don Valley East
(Liberals -4500; Conservatives +2100; NDP +4800; Greens -1500)
Bramalea-Gore-Malton
(Liberals -5800; Conservatives +1600; NDP +13,400;            Greens -700)

Seat Predictions & Election Speculation

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/where-the-parties-stand-after-the-final-week-of-2011-election/article2005719/?from=2005713

Final polling numbers are in (courtesy of the Globe and Mail), as we roll into tomorrow’s election.  In this podcast, I go coast to coast (to coast), giving you the rundown on what the numbers could mean, and what our next Parlaiment could look like.

 

Dowload Link:
Seat Projections 2011

               2008          Min           Max

         Atlantic Canada
               2008          Min           Max
Con          10               7                13
Lib           17              11               18
NDP          4                6                  9
Ind            1

       Quebec
               2008          Min           Max
Con          10              7                10
Lib           14              7                13
NDP          1              10               32
Bloc        49             25               46
Ind           1

        Ontario
               2008          Min           Max
Con          51              48               58
Lib           38              29               40
NDP        17              17                20

      Manitoba/Saskatchewan
               2008          Min           Max
Con         22               21               22
Lib           2                  2                 2
NDP        4                  4                  5

        Alberta
               2008          Min           Max
Con          27             27              27
Lib            0                0                 0
NDP          1                1                   1

       British Columbia
               2008          Min           Max
Con         22              18               25
Lib           5                 3                 6
NDP        9                 8                12
Green     0                 0                1

      North
               2008          Min           Max
Con          1                   0                1
Lib           1                   1                 1
NDP         1                  1                 2

         Total
               2008          Min           Max
Con         143           128            156     (155 is majority)
Lib           77             53              80
NDP         37            47               81
Bloc         49             25               46
Green      0                0                  1
Ind           2                0                  1

NDP Platform 2011

http://www.ndp.ca/platform

Last but not least (don’t believe me, check the polls), here is a condensed look at the platfrom from the New Democratic Party.

 

Download Link:
NDP Platform 2011

New Revenue:  $12.7 B – $15.2 B
$8.6 B – $9.9 B : Corporate Tax Rates to 19.5%
$2 B : End Fossil Fuel Subsidies
$2 B – $3.2 B : Tax Haven Crackdown
$125 M : Crime Legislation Saving

New Spending:  $12.7 B – $14.4 B
$625 M : Job Creation Tax Credit ($4,500/new hire)
$180 M : Incentives for Manufacturing Investment
$1 B : Small Business Tax Cut (from 11% to 9%)
$100 M : More Affordable Medications
$500 M – $1 B : Home Care Transfer (to provinces)
$500 M – $1 B : Long-Term Care Transfer (to provinces)
$400 M : Ending Senior Poverty (Guaranteed Income Suppliment)
$900 M : Caregivers’ Tax Benefit ($1,500/year)
$250 M : EI Compassionate Care (6 months from 6 weeks)
$500 M : 100% Nation-wide Broadband
$125 M : Crime Prevention / Anti-Gang
$160 M (3rd & 4th years) : Hiring More Police
$750 M – $2 B : Helping Parents with Costs of Raising Kids
$660 M – $1.3 B : Childare Spaces (25,000 /year)
$700 M : Removing Federal Sales Tax from Home Heating
$160 M : Protecting Farmers’ Incomes
$800 M : Lower Post-Secondary Tuition
$200 M : Ensuring Access to Higher Education
$1.2 B : Aboriginal Education Fund
$1.4 B (ending 2nd year) : HST Agreement with Quebec
$125 M : Building Northern Highways
$500 M – $650 M : Increasing Overseas Aid

 Green Initiatives:  $1.1 B Surplus in 4th year
$4.3 B – $7.4 B : Cap & Trade Revenue

$500 M – $1.5 B : Investing in Canada’s Green Future
$300 M – $750 M : Training for the Jobs of Tomorrow
$300 M : Cutting Heating Costs Permanently
$500 M : Urban Transit
$200 M : Safe Drinking Water
$100 M : From Lab to Market (Green Innovation)
$500 M – $1 B : Helping Canadians Adjust
$200 M : Infrastructure Fund
$200 M : Energy Efficient Housing Rehabilitation
$100 M : Affordable Housing
$700 M : Energy Efficient Affordable Homes
$375 M : Green Job Creation Tax Credit

Conservative Platform 2011

http://www.conservative.ca/policy/platform_2011/

A 12-minute look at the big ticket items of the Conservative Platform.

 

Download Link:
Conservative Platform 2011

Budget Cuts
$1.0 B – $4.0 B (by 5th year) : Strategic & Operating Review Savings
$6.9 M – 27.4 M (by 5th year) : Political Party Subsidies

Spending: $1.7 B ($6.6 total for 5 years)
$124 M (first 2 years only) : Hiring Credit for Small Business
 - 1-year EI Break for Small Businesses

$150 M ($120 M for 4th & 5th years) : Digital Economy Strategy
 - Wireless Spectrum Auction revenue investments

$1.5 B (first 2 years only) : HST Agreement with Quebec

$100 M : Children’s Art Tax Credit
 - $500/year for art or cultural activities

$160 M : Family Caregivers
 - $2,000/year tax credit

$300 M ($350 M by 5th year) : Low-Income Seniors
 - $600/year increase in Guaranteed Income Suppliment

$245 M : Conserving & Protecting our Environment
 - Establish new national parks
 - Increase ecoENERGY Retrofit-Homes program
 - R&D into clean energy & energy efficiency

$235 M (3rd year) $275 M (4th year) : Manufacturing Investments & Jobs
 - Extend 50% Straight-Line Accelerated Capital Cost Allowance

$625 M (4th year) $2.5 B (5th year) : Family Tax Cut
 - Income-splitting, up to $50,000; kids under 18

$130 M (5th year) : Double Children’s Fitness Tax Credit
 - From $500-$1000 for registration fees of physical activities

The Liberal Platform

http://www.liberal.ca/platform

The Liberal Platform clocks in at 94 pages, but you can get the highlights in this 12 minute podcast.

 

Download Link:
Liberal Platform 2011

 Budget Cuts:  $7 B
$5.2 B : Corporate Tax Rate to 18% (2010 levels)

$500 M : Wireless Spectrum Auction

$300 M : Cap on Stock Options ($50 K max)

$270 M : Cancel Public Private Partnership Infrastructure Fund

$250 M : End Oil Sands tax break (offset with “Cleaner”)

$500 M : Spending Review (C.D. Howe estimate)

 New Spending:  $5.5 B
$2.2 B : Canadian Learning Strategy

Learning Passport ($1000/year; $1500 low-income)
Veterans (4 years 100% paid post-secondary)
Language Training for New Canadians
Aboriginal Education (K-12 & Post-Secondary)
Early Childhood Learning & Care (provincial)

$275 M : Affordable Housing

$175 M : Canadian Champion Sectors (clean resources, health & bioscience, digital technologies)

$125 M : Freshwater Infrastructure

$250 M : “Cleaner” Oil Sands Development (offset tax break)

$860 M : Family Care (6-months EI & $1,350 Tax Credit)

$400 M : Green Renovation Tax Credit ($13,500)

$400 M : Guaranteed Income Supplement (low-income seniors)

$200 M : High Speed Internet (100% coverage)

$140 M : Renewable Power Production (research)

$160 M : Youth Hiring Incentive (EI Holiday)

——————————–
$1.5 B : Prudence Reserve

History of Canadian Federal Politics

Welcome to my very first political podcast.

I figure that there’s no better place to start than by looking back at how we got here.  So, from Confederation until today, here is the history of federal politics in Canada, boiled down to just over 20 minutes.

 

Download link:
History of Canadian Federal Politics

Wondering how I learned all this stuff?
Want to follow along, while listening?
Do you want to know more?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_elections

English Language Debate (Full Recap)

The following is a recap of the entire English Leader’s Debate, paraphrasing what each leader said.  Politicians are long-winded, and usually not very good at getting to the point.  Here’s the substance of what they said, without having to jump through all the hoops.

English Leader’s Debate
April 12, 2011
Ottawa, ON
Stephen Paikin (TVO) Moderating

Format:  1-on-1 Debate between two randomly selected leaders, on 6 questions.  It is then opened up to all 4 candidates, before moving to the next question.

Q1 – How can the Conservatives justify a corporate tax cut?

Harper & Duceppe

H: No new cuts.  Everything was included in previous budgets.  Everyone else is cancelling those cuts.
D: Money wasted on G8/G20.  Produce reports.
H: Auditor General reports, so it’s for the AG to produce them.
D: You said there would be no recession.  We forced you to take action, because you had no plan.
H: G20 agreed, and Canada did it.  It wasn’t from you guys.
D: You haven’t done enough for forestry & automobile sectors.
H: Bloc voted against our measures to help these industries.
D: You’re funding the Lower Churchill, but didn’t help Quebec.

All-Candidates

I: H is wasting money, on the G20, and on tax cuts.
H: G20 spending was approved by communities.  There are no new tax cuts.
L: I voted for the tax cuts, and is pretending he didn’t.  H has become what he used to oppose.
H: L forced an election, rather than doing the things that he said he was going to fight for.
I: We’re having an election because you couldn’t tell the truth about the money you’re spending.
H: Canada’s recovery is the best in the world.  You wanted an election instead.
I: Tell the truth about the economy.  That’s what this election is about.
H: The jets are dying by the end of the decade.  We’re simply replacing them.
I: You won’t tell us how much they cost.
L: Conservatives are the problem.  Right wing policies are killing the country.
H: We don’t need to choose one or the other.  We have balanced policies, and they’re working.
D: How much do the planes cost?  Can you tell us how much?
H: The budgetted numbers are clear.  The planes won’t be bought for 5 years.
I: Keeping the taxes at 18% will free up the money needed.
H: You don’t cut taxes to pay for things; you grow the economy.
L: Creating jobs is investing in small businesses, not big corporations.
H: We have helped everyone.

Q2 – What is your vision for Canada on the world stage?

Ignatieff & Layton

I: Canada didn’t make the Security Council, and botched the G8/G20.  Canada needs to stand for things at home, that we’ll spread abroad.
L: Conservative Senate blocked sending drugs to Africa.  Troops should be coming home.
I: Afghans need security.  End the combat, but train the police & army.  Don’t completely pull out.
L: Those are the same arguments that H makes.  Canada is losing its voice for peace, by focussing on combat.
I: We can’t walk away from Afghanistan.
L: How can people trust what you say, when your actions are so different?  “You’re Mr. Harper’s best friend.”
I: You’re changing the subject.
L: Why are you freezing foreign aid?
I: We want aid going worldwide, and we’re helping Canadian citizens do it.
L: Your party started the trend of dropping the ball on the environment.

All-Candidates

H: We’re doing great work around the world (Afghanistan, Libya, Haiti, environment, economy, etc.)
D: Policies are a copy of Bush policies, which Quebec can’t support.
H: We’re making sure that dollars are going to the right places.  It’s not about different values, but efficiency.
D: We remember that you wanted to go to Iraq.
I: H didn’t make the Security Council, and botched the G8/G20.  H’s ideology is disrespecting democracy.
H: In this global economy, we are making sure that we’re an important part of it.
L: The world wants to know why the government is secretive, and being held in contempt.  Will you call for the AG report?
H: “We encourage the AG to release the report.”  The world is saying that we’re leading the recovery, and we have to work.
I: We’re having an election because you didn’t tell the truth.  You LOST confidence.
H: Numbers in budget have been verified.  Opposition is just going after us, instead of supporting recovery.
D: You used to say that the government must respect the House of Commons.  Why aren’t you doing it now?
H: We ran the longest minority government in Canada’s history.  Sometimes we disagree, but that’s okay.
L: H packed the Senate with his friends, and used it to block important bills.
H: NDP bills were just statements, but didn’t actually do anything.
L: You don’t want Canada taking strong action on the environment.
I: H’s foreign policy has failed, and hasn’t respected democracy.  You can’t teach abroad what you don’t do at home.
H: Saying we’re shutting down foreign aid agencies is false.  We’re still working worldwide, making a difference.

Q3 – How do you plan to work with other parties, if it’s a minority government?

Harper & Ignatieff

H: We need a majority.  The government must take responsibility for its policies.
I: We’re having an election because H didn’t tell the truth, and was held in contempt of parlaiment.
H: Contempt was a partisan decision, not a justice decision.  The budget was well received, and they wanted an election.
I: You haven’t earned a majority.  You don’t trust Canadians, and they can’t trust you.  Why are you afraid of people?
H: We’ve stayed connected with Canadians.  Bickering is useless.  We trust Canadians, and it’s their choice.
I: You tossed people out of your meetings, and shut down parlaiment.
H: Canadians will decide whether contempt was valid, and whether there should be an election.
I: You don’t trust Parl, wouldn’t tell the truth, and that’s why there’s an election.
H: We gave information, and you didn’t believe it.  You just wanted more, and “better”.
I: It’s not “bickering”, it’s democracy.  It’s about time you respected it.

All-Candidates

L: Parties should be working together.  H doesn’t agree.
H: We stayed in power so long because we DID work with other parties.  We want a bigger mandate.
D: How can we work together?  The Bloc votes for good policies, and votes against poor policies.  H wanted to be PM despite finishing second, and now you say that’s wrong.
H: There wouldn’t be a coalition.  I wants just that.  D wants to choose the winner.
H, L, & D argue about coalitions.
I: We won’t accept a coalition.
L: There are more options than just H & I.
I: I’m just saying that there won’t be a coalition.
L: Why have you been keeping H is power for so long?
H: The party that wins the most seats, chooses the PM.  Otherwise, the Bloc will be empowered.
I: You have to win the confidence of the HoC.
H: If you don’t win the most seats, you don’t get to be PM.
D: The winning party has to have the support of the House.  You have to work with other parties.
H: Without a majority, there’ll just be another election.
L: The electoral system is broken.  We need proportional representation (Bloc & Greens as examples).
I: Key issue is trust.  H didn’t earn it, or have it, and hasn’t earned a majority.
H: We’ve governed through difficult times.  Clearly, we HAVE worked with other parties.
L: I has the worst attendance record in the HoC.
I: H hasn’t earned a minority, let alone a majority.  Liberals are the alternative.

Q4 – How do you stand on social integration, and accomodation?

Duceppe & Layton

D: Multiculturalism doesn’t fit with Quebec.  Integration is what is right for Quebec.
L: H is encouraging people to come here temporarily.  We need permanent immigration.
D: There cannot be two classes of refugees.
L: Immigrants are economic units; they’re people.  We’d help skilled workers become accredited.
D: Would you give Quebec power over immigration, and integration policies?
L: NDP has supported extensive powers for Quebec.
D: French is the language of Quebec, and has to be protected by law.
L: We have proposed just that.
D: You haven’t done enough.

All-Candidates

I: The key to helping immigrants is language training.  Everyone needs equality, like the Charter says.
H: We’ve tripled funding for language training.  Multiculturalism is why Canada is so successful.  $ for credentials.
L: That was inadequite.  Your government has cut support for immigrants, leaving them out to dry.
H: We’re focussed long term.
L: Why so many temporary workers.
H: Provinces are asking us to bring them in.
I: My dad wouldn’t have gotten in, under your government.  Family reunification must be emphasized.
H: Family reunification has been supported by our government.
D: Since Quebec is a nation, people come to Quebec to be Quebecers.  French must be the language of work in economic sector.
H: We respect division of powers.  In our jurisdiction, we have to support both official languages.
D: Multiculturalism creates ghettos.  Quebec doesn’t want that.  We need integration.
H: Multiculturalism is the most successful policy in the world.
L: H is failing on immigration.
H: There was a huge backlog when we took power, and we’re working on it.
I: All Canadians are Canadians.  Politicizing immigration is wrong.
H: We respect all Canadians, no matter their ethnicity.

Q5 – What will will you do about criminals & light sentences?

Ignatieff & Duceppe

I: Can’t import failed policies from USA.  Must be tough on guns, and invest in prevention.  Strengthen police.
D: H is soft on crime in his own government.  More guns & prisons is dangerous.
I: Need balance, and need to learn from successes elsewhere.  Education & social spending is crime prevention.
D: Quebec’s system is working.  H majority is dangerous, because private members bring forth right-wing policies.
I: Crime is serious, but fear is exploitative.  Policies have to be built on facts, not idiology.  Balance.

All-Candidates

H: Canadians want balance, and that includes tough punishments.  Other parties have blocked these policies.
L: You haven’t kept promises.  Need to focus on prevention, too.
I: We need balance, and we won’t get than from H.  Education saves people from joining gangs.
H: Punishment hasn’t fit the crime.  We’ll make sure they do.
D: Bundling proposals is playing politics, not governing.
H: I & L aren’t balanced either.  They go too far the other way.
L: Crooks are in Senate, not jail.  More women in government must happen.  Communities ask for social spending, not jails.
I: Gun control is essential.  L hasn’t supported gun registry.
L: Yes I have.
H: Gun registry isn’t gun control.  It’s a policy that doesn’t work.
D: Quebec wants the registry, and Canada does not.
H: Quebecers know that the registry isn’t effective gun control.
I: Police want the registry, and that’s enough for me.
H: Police don’t all want it.

Q6 – What will a new health accord do to hold provinces accountable?

Layton & Harper

L: Tommy Douglas created public healthcare, and NDP will make sure it’s improved.  More docs, nurses, home care, beds, drugs.
H: Old accord didn’t have any measures.  We put them in place later.  We’ll work with provinces to make a better accord.
L: You don’t offer solutions.  You jump on bandwagons, and pit people against each other.
H: We’re the first government to actually live up to our promises.
L: We need a government that supports public healthcare, not one that supports private healthcare.
H: All provinces & parties have tried different methods.  We’ll make sure the money is there.
L: Why has private healthcare grown under your government, without you stopping it.
H: We respect provinces.  We’ll make sure the money gets the results, regardless of how.

All-Candidates

D: Ottawa can’t make decisions.  Provinces run healthcare; feds just make money available.
I: Feds have to make sure that healthcare is available to everyone, and that money is spent right.
H: Liberals cut healthcare when they were in power.  Tax increases will hurt economy, which means no money for healthcare.
L: Nobody else is offering solutions NOW.
I: We’re only party offering family care.  We’re promoting health, not healthcare.
L: Liberals have long history of breaking promises.
I: At least our party has been in power.
D: Need to eliminate middle-man.

Steve Paikin: Can any of you actually do any of this?  How can you afford to do everything?

H: Yes.  Everything is costed out.  These priorities will delay balanced budget, but we’ll get there.
L: H is promising everything to everyone.  We know that some things can’t be done, and are prioritizing.
I: Saving money being spent unwisely makes the money available.
D: So much money is wasted.  Eliminate that, and you can do what you need to.
H: Everyone else is increasing taxes.  Growing the economy makes more money available for healthcare et al.
L: We’re cutting taxes for small businesses, not rich corporations.
H: NDP will never cut taxes.
I: 18% is a competitive rate.  Lower is wasted.  Balance is key.
H: Raising taxes kills jobs.
I: Small & medium businesses need help, too.
Closing Statements

L: Libs & Cons have long history of corruption, and failure.  You do have a choice, no matter what other people say.
D: Quebec is a nation, and has the right to make its own choices.  Con majority cannot be, and Bloc is only option to stop it.
I: The choice is between Libs & Cons.  We have your priorities, and H doesn’t.
H: Canada is recovering faster than any other country.  We need a majority to finish the job.